Central Valley Industrial Rent Benchmark & Market Data 2026
Net asking rents, vacancy, availability, inventory and cap rates for the three largest Central Valley industrial markets — Sacramento, Stockton/San Joaquin County and Fresno — plus a submarket-by-submarket breakdown. Every figure on this page comes from a named brokerage market report (Kidder Mathews, Colliers, CBRE, Cushman & Wakefield, Lee & Associates); no figure is estimated from listing data. A machine-readable version of the tables below is available as a free CSV download.
Executive Summary
The headline finding for Q3 2026 is rent parity: the three Central Valley markets price within a 7 cent band of each other on a net basis — Sacramento at $0.79/SF NNN per month ($9.48/SF per year), Stockton/San Joaquin at $0.77 ($9.24/SF per year) and Fresno at $0.74 ($8.88/SF per year).
What actually separates the markets is not rent — it is vacancy, inventory depth and deal size. Sacramento carries the deepest inventory (187.2M SF) with the tightest metro vacancy (6.5%); San Joaquin County offers the largest buildings and Port of Stockton access at 8.2% vacancy; Fresno carries the highest vacancy (12.7% direct, CBRE Q1 2026) and the widest cap-rate band (6.50–9.00%), which is why investor demand there is strongest. A tenant choosing between the three is choosing logistics position and lease flexibility, not price.
For a 25,000 SF tenant, the annual base-rent difference between the highest-rent Central Valley market (Sacramento) and the lowest (Fresno) is roughly $15,000 per year — about 6% of occupancy cost. The same footprint in the Bay Area or the I-880 corridor runs $1.60–$2.40/SF NNN per month, or 2–3× Central Valley pricing.
Central Valley Market Snapshot — Q3 2026
| Market | Net asking rent ($/SF NNN/mo) | Annual equivalent ($/SF/yr) | Vacancy | Availability | Inventory | Net absorption | Cap rates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento | $$0.79 | $9.48 | 6.5% | 10.2% | 187.2M SF | +130K SF (Q2 2026) | 5.75–8.00% |
| Stockton / San Joaquin County | $$0.77 | $9.24 | 8.2% | 10.1% | 59.6M SF | +868,953 SF | 6.25–8.50% |
| Fresno / South Central Valley | $$0.74 | $8.88 | 12.7% | 5.0% | ~45M SF | −224K SF (CBRE Q1 2026) | 6.50–9.00% |
Vacancy and availability are different measures and are reported by different firms: "vacancy" is direct vacant space, "availability" adds sublet and space being marketed for future occupancy (which is why Fresno shows 12.7% vacancy against 5.0% availability for a narrower geography). Read each line with its source in the Methodology section below rather than as a like-for-like comparison.
Submarket Net Rents & Vacancy — 13 Central Valley Submarkets
Submarket pricing spreads much wider than market-level averages: within San Joaquin County the gap between Tracy ($0.80–$1.20/SF NNN/mo, Bay Area-adjacent) and Modesto ($0.45–$0.75) is close to 2×, and within Sacramento Rancho Cordova ($0.94) runs roughly a third above Elk Grove ($0.60–$0.90). The same building in the cheapest value submarket versus the priciest premium submarket is a six-figure annual difference at large square footages.
| Market | Submarket | Net rent ($/SF NNN/mo) | Vacancy / availability | Typical building class | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento | Sacramento (city / Power Inn–South Sac) | $0.79 | 10.2% availability marketwide | Class B/C multitenant, Class A distribution | Kidder Mathews Q2 2026 |
| Sacramento | Rancho Cordova | $0.94 | 4.3% direct vacancy | Class A distribution and flex | Kidder Mathews Q2 2026 |
| Sacramento | Elk Grove | $0.60–$0.90 | Below MSA average | Class A/B newer development | Kidder Mathews Q2 2026 |
| Sacramento | McClellan Park | $0.71 | 3.6% direct vacancy | Class A/B large-format | Kidder Mathews Q2 2026 |
| Stockton | Stockton (city) | $0.70 | 12.1% | Class B/C multitenant, Class A distribution | Colliers Q1 2026 |
| Stockton | Tracy | $0.80–$1.20 | 8.2% (county) | Class A large-format | Cushman & Wakefield Q4 2025 Central Valley |
| Stockton | Lathrop | $0.70–$1.00 | 8.2% (county) | Class A distribution | Cushman & Wakefield Q4 2025 Central Valley |
| Stockton | Lodi | $0.76 | 4.7% — tightest in San Joaquin | Class B ag-processing | Colliers Q1 2026 |
| Stockton | Manteca | $0.60–$0.90 | 8.2% (county) | Class A/B mix | Cushman & Wakefield Q4 2025 Central Valley |
| Stockton | French Camp | $0.75–$1.10 | 8.2% (county) | Class A distribution | Cushman & Wakefield Q4 2025 Central Valley |
| Stockton | Modesto | $0.45–$0.75 | 8.2% (county) | Class B flex/industrial | Colliers Q1 2026 |
| Fresno | Fresno | $0.72 ($0.55–$0.95) | 5.0% availability | Class B/C core, Class B+/A− parks | CBRE Q1 2026 · Cushman & Wakefield Q2 2026 |
| Fresno | Clovis | $0.65–$0.95 | ~5–7% estimated | Class B flex/industrial | CBRE Q1 2026 · Cushman & Wakefield Q2 2026 |
Ranges are asking ranges reported by the named brokerage for that submarket; single values are reported submarket averages. County-level vacancy (8.2%) applies to submarkets where no separate figure is published.
Rent by Building Size: What Drives the Spread
Per-square-foot rates fall as buildings get larger, because operating and land costs spread across more square feet. Brokerage data for the Central Valley puts the pattern at roughly:
| Size band | Typical net rent ($/SF NNN/mo) | Who competes for it |
|---|---|---|
| Small bay (< 5,000 SF) | $0.95–$1.40 | Contractors, e-commerce, small manufacturers — the tightest segment in the Valley |
| Mid-size (5,000–25,000 SF) | $0.75–$1.00 | Local distribution, light manufacturing, flex/office-warehouse users |
| Large (25,000–100,000 SF) | $0.60–$0.85 | Regional distribution, food processing, 3PL operators |
| Big-box (100,000+ SF) | $0.55–$0.75 | National 3PLs and big-box distribution — deepest in Stockton/Lathrop and South Fresno |
Bands are derived from the submarket asking ranges in the table above and the small-bay premium documented in WareSpace's 2026 Micro-Bay Industrial Report (small-bay vacancy 4.8% vs. 7.1% national) and Kidder Mathews' Q2 2026 large-format Sacramento range ($0.60–$0.72/SF NNN/mo). Individual buildings vary widely with clear height, loading, yard and office finish — a rate quote is only meaningful against a spec sheet.
The mid-size band is where most flex and office-warehouse product competes. For that segment in Sacramento specifically, our guide to flex and office-warehouse space in Sacramento covers the typical rate and size ranges and which submarkets hold the inventory.
Annual Occupancy Cost on a 25,000 SF Footprint
Base rent only, at each market's reported net asking rate, before NNN reimbursements ($0.15–$0.35/SF/mo in taxes, insurance and CAM across the Valley):
| Market | Monthly base rent | Annual base rent | Estimated annual NNN | Total annual occupancy cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento — $0.79/SF NNN/mo | $19,750 | $237,000 | $45,000–$105,000 | $282,000–$342,000 |
| Stockton / San Joaquin — $0.77/SF NNN/mo | $19,250 | $231,000 | $45,000–$105,000 | $276,000–$336,000 |
| Fresno — $0.74/SF NNN/mo | $18,500 | $222,000 | $45,000–$105,000 | $267,000–$327,000 |
| Bay Area (I-880 / Oakland) — $1.60–$2.40/SF NNN/mo | $40,000–$60,000 | $480,000–$720,000 | varies — often higher tax basis | $500,000–$760,000 |
Built by multiplying the broker-reported net asking rate by 25,000 SF and 12 months. Bay Area range from the California warehouse cost comparison.
Sacramento Listing Inventory (Live)
For current availability rather than market averages, the Sacramento site maintains 280 active industrial listings with addresses, photos, sizes and asking rates as published by the listing broker. Browse by submarket: Sacramento, Rancho Cordova, Elk Grove, McClellan Park and North Highlands — or see the Sacramento warehouse lease rates guide. For the sub-5,000 SF segment specifically, see small-bay warehouse space in Sacramento.
Download the Dataset & How to Cite It
The tables above are published as a machine-readable CSV for analysts, appraisers, journalists and economic development staff who need Central Valley industrial data with sources attached: central-valley-industrial-data-2026-q3.csv (16 rows: 3 markets + 13 submarkets; net rent, vacancy, availability, building class, market position and source).
Suggested citation: Sacramento Industrial (2026). Central Valley Industrial Rent Benchmark & Market Data, Q3 2026. Compiled from Kidder Mathews Q2 2026 Sacramento Industrial, Colliers Q1 2026 San Joaquin County, CBRE Q1 2026 South Central Valley, Cushman & Wakefield Q4 2025 Central Valley and Q2 2026 Fresno MarketBeat, and Lee & Associates Q1 2026.
Corrections and updated quarters: contact us — we re-run this dataset each quarter and will note revisions here.
Methodology & Data Sources
Every rent, vacancy, availability and cap-rate figure on this page is taken from a named brokerage market report. Where a firm publishes an asking range, the range is reproduced; where it publishes an average, the average is reproduced. Annual equivalents are the reported monthly net rate multiplied by twelve and are labeled as such.
What this page deliberately does not publish: average lease rates calculated from live listing inventory. Listings in this market quote rates in at least three different conventions — annual dollars per square foot ($/SF/yr), monthly dollars per square foot ($/SF/mo) and monthly totals — and the import field does not carry the unit. Averaging those values together produces numbers that look precise and are wrong. Brokerage-reported figures are used instead, and listing data is used only for counts and square footage, which are unit-safe.
- Kidder Mathews — Q2 2026 Sacramento Industrial (vacancy 6.5%, availability 10.2%, asking $0.79/SF NNN/mo, 187.2M SF inventory, +130K SF absorption); Q2 2026 large-format Sacramento ($0.60–$0.72/SF NNN/mo); Q2 2026 Bay Area / Inland Empire / Los Angeles industrial
- Colliers — Q1 2026 San Joaquin County (vacancy 8.2%, +868,953 SF absorption, ~$0.77/SF NNN/mo); Q1 2026 stock-level submarket rents (Stockton $0.70, Lodi $0.76, Modesto $0.45–$0.75)
- CBRE — Q1 2026 South Central Valley (Fresno vacancy 12.7%, −224K SF absorption, $0.74/SF NNN/mo); Q2 2026 US Industrial (national vacancy 6.5%)
- Cushman & Wakefield — Q2 2026 Fresno MarketBeat (availability 5.0%, −20 bps YoY); Q4 2025 Central Valley MarketBeat (San Joaquin submarket ranges: Tracy, Lathrop, Manteca, French Camp)
- Lee & Associates — Q1 2026 Market Report (Stockton/Modesto cap rates 6.25–8.5%; average sale $278/SF; Fresno industrial sale prices $60–$110/SF)
- WareSpace — 2026 Micro-Bay Industrial Report (small-bay vacancy 4.8% vs. 7.1% national; small-bay rent premium)
- Live listing inventory (280 active Sacramento listings) — used for availability, address, size and photo data only.
Asking rates are not transaction rates. Achieved rents vary with tenant credit, lease term, tenant improvements, free rent and expense structure. Cap rates are for stabilized assets. For current availability, browse active listings or contact us.